Welcome to EV's point and figures. This blog is dedicated to the use of point and figure charts in technical analysis.

Although P&F first appeared in charts in the 1930's, it is an often overlooked techique for analysing stocks and charts. A poor relation compared to line and bar charts and their range of momentum indicators. Yet few charts provide a clearer picture of the daily battle between bulls and bears for market control.

Like most methods, it should not be used in isolation. It should form part of an analysts 'tool box' and be used with other techniques to help form an overall view.

The charts that appear on this blog and any accompanying comments are purely for information purposes only - my own personal take on where the prices may be heading. They do not constitute investment advice.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

FTSE 100 update

In broad terms I still see the FTSE trending lower but in the short term, will we get a 'high pole' back up towards 5,800, similar to that seen in 2010? That is the question.
You can see the 'high pole' to the left of this 50x3 HL chart (4th column in with the 3 and in it - Mar, Apr). A big move up immediatley followed by a immediate 50% retrace which in this case became 100%. At present, the 6.150 target to the upside is still active and it can be seen that so far the index has not violated the 4,750 low from August. The rally we have seen in the last two days is a continnation of the recent pattern of sharp moves down, followed by quick rallies but the point to note is the lower highs and lower lows - bears are coming back in at lower levels and pushing the market down. This may not continue but it suggests the bears are in control. The move through 4,950 during the last sell off has activated 4,050.

If we strip out more noise, this 100x3 (100 points per box, 300 point move to reverse into a new colunm, we can see that here too the bears have been gaining ground. Initial reistance at 5,400, then new lows with each downward move. Both those targets to the downside are active but again, will we get some short term spike up to 5,800, keeping the symmetary of the pattern?

And here is a 50x3 chart using the 'closing price' method (ie the chart is plotted based on the closing market level only, not the intra day high low. It strips out the intra day volatility). This one is quite interesting because it shows the August closing low has been violated by the most recent sell off. There are currently no active targets to the upside there are active targets of 4,650 (not shown) and 4,450. I've circled the 'high pole' here in purple - the chart has a great symmetary about it so as the right shoulder forms, will we get another high pole. At present, the chart is saying no but that may of course change as it develops.

And using a more traditional candle chart, if this is a forming right shoulder, it lends itself to a higher level. As I calculated in a previous post using the 50x3 PF, a 78.6% retrace from the top (6050) to bottom (4800) comes out at 5,782, which is reasonably close). This assumes of course that we get a 'perfect' head and shoulder pattern.

So overall the PF charts are currently showing be bears still have it but watch out for a high pole.

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