Welcome to EV's point and figures. This blog is dedicated to the use of point and figure charts in technical analysis.

Although P&F first appeared in charts in the 1930's, it is an often overlooked techique for analysing stocks and charts. A poor relation compared to line and bar charts and their range of momentum indicators. Yet few charts provide a clearer picture of the daily battle between bulls and bears for market control.

Like most methods, it should not be used in isolation. It should form part of an analysts 'tool box' and be used with other techniques to help form an overall view.

The charts that appear on this blog and any accompanying comments are purely for information purposes only - my own personal take on where the prices may be heading. They do not constitute investment advice.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

FTSE 100 - double bottom sell signal

Sometimes simple charts are the best. Following on from the previous entry, this 25x3 closing P&F on the FTSE 100 has now progressed. We had a three box reversal to the upside (denoted by the 3 x's) but that has now reversed and the bears have pushed the market down below the previous column of 0's creating a nice double bottom sell signal and an activated downside target of 5,050.

Still plenty of scope for this to reverse and lapse but reading the chart today, this is what it is suggesting.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

FTSE 100 - looking double-toppish

There will be no 3 box reversal to the upside today because the FTSE looks set to close about 50 or so points higher (currently 5,705). Stockcharts target to the downside is not active because its based on the current column of 0's from the recent high. A continuation of this straight down would make for a nice double-top pattern but is in no way a given.

Happy Thankgiving from ''Ellan Vannin''!!

Monday, November 15, 2010


Double top buy signal given by the current column of X's, having moved above the previous column of X's. Upside target of 33 is active, noting minor bearish resistance at 29 and the primary bearish resistance line overhead at 32.5

Thursday, November 11, 2010


This was at yesterday's close, pre-announcement.

The bearish price objective of $11.5 remains active but given the recent bullish action (prior to last night's results), i'd like to see the price back below $19.5, ie filling that $19.5 box and making a lower low.

Assuming the current column of X's reverses today (and it only requires a move to the downside of $1.5 to do so), there will be an unactivated upside price target of $32. A move above $25 from the next column of X's (if it occurs) will activate that target.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

US 30 yr Tres Yield

This is the 0.025x3 closing P&F on the 30 yr Tres yield. See that the old bearish resistance line (red) has now been breached and we have bullish support (blue). That's bullish for the yield, bearish for the price!

An activated upside target of 4.58% equates to a price of approx $88.60, given the bond's modified duration of 16.57. Currrent price is $96.07, so that's a fall of 7%.

This chart could easily be quashed by some wayward QE but for now these targets are in play.

Friday, November 5, 2010

Spain IBEX - not joining the party

Banks update

Here's a follow up to a previous posting 'US Banks - the party poopers'

Goldmans is obviously busy doing God's work again. The forming triangle pattern failed and there has been a clear break to the upside. Both those targets are active and I have no meaningful targets to the downside at this time.

BAC on the other hand continues to show the signs of a bank teetering on the edge. This is a 0.5x3 closing P&F - no signs of a reversal to the upside at present (may show in the 0.25x3 but need to check).

This 0.25x3 closing chart on Citigroup is a bit muddled. Going back to last year it can be seen that there was clear resistance at $4 which finally got taken out at the fourth attempt by the bulls but since then there has been further resistance at $5 and the shares have since stayed in a range between $3.25 and $4.75. That most recent upside target of $9.5 is as yet unactivated. Would need to see a close above $5.25 to make it active.

Can't really make a call either way on JPM at the moment although suffice to say the shares have had a strong move to the upside in recent weeks. We need to see the current column of X's reverse before being able to give an unactivated upside target. To the downside, those price objectives of $32.75 and $31.25 remain in play.

BKX often gets a mention. Short term support currently at 45.5. This index has clearly lagged the broader market -will it be the party pooper that eventually joins the party? A move above 48.5 would certainly give it a chance.

And this weekly bullish percent index on the SPX Financials Sector is quite revealing. It shows the percent of stocks in the sector giving a new P&F 'buy' signal. Broader market near or at 2 year high? This sector showing 'only' 54% of stocks giving a new P&F buy signal? The recent action suggests it could move higher but definitely worth keeping an eye on.