FTSE 100 - topped out??

 

 

Seeing a lot of resistance on FTSE 100 at the 5,920 level, on both the daily and weekly charts. On the daily, it has struggles to push above that downward resistance line that formed from the 2011 top. And see how the support line from the June 2012 rally has become resistance, which the market was unable to push through this morning. 

 

 

The weekly below also showing strong resistance at current levels. The bulls need to push through this decisively to resume the bullish run but having failed to do so on all previous attempts, i'm wondering if we have seen the top for now.

VIX - gaps

See the gap between 13.90 and 13.75.



The gaps on the VIX consistently get filled. Likely this one will before the higher gap between 17.54 and 16.47



RUT - more upside to come

This 5x3 closing PF of the RUT 2000 suggests a bit more upside. The longer term (blue) bullish support line has not been broken. The target of 875 given from the recent low would challenge the May 11 high. We also have a more recent double top buy signal with a target of 845. This 845 figure is also corroborated on the same 5x3 chart but one that uses the 'high/low' technique.

VIX - getting close to completing H&S target

There is a very nice symmetary on this hourly chart of the VIX. 



For me, the VIX will need to get back down to between 14 and 15 then form a base, which could co-incide with SPX testing its previous high of 1,422.

One thing that can be said about the VIX (just by observing the chart above) is that gaps do get filled and there us a nice gap (circled) between 16.5 and 18. The only question is whether it gets filled prior to going down to the 14-15 range or after.  I'd suggest the latter, such seems to be the renewed mood of 'optimism' running through the market!

And here's the VIX with SPX overlay. I can't count waves to save my life but a traditional double top at 1,422 certainly looks plausible!

FTSE 100 hourly chart

On the hourly chart, possible failed backtest of previous support line.





FTSE 100 update

On the hourly chart the FTSE 100 has now slipped out of the upward channel. 

And on the daily there is a now a backtest of the upward sloping line, where the index previously found resistance at the 61.8% fib.



FTSE 100 4 hour chart

Flirting with the 61.8% fib - short term double top perhaps?

We could now test the upward sloping support line at 5,650  - 5,655

Bigger picture