Goldman Sachs: still triangle-ish!

I've been keeping an eye on Goldman Sachs, which I flagged up in early September as a possible forming triangle.

At first glance, (although the long and short term bullish support lines are undeniably in tact) this chart does not look particularly bullish. GS is nowhere near its pre-flash crash level of $182.5 and since that decline in April, the bulls efforts to push the share price back up have been thwarted on two occasions now. We had reversals at $155 and more recently at $152.5.

Its not a perfect forming triangle but we are reaching a point where the price should move out of this area. To the downside, look for support at $137.5 and $132.5. If these levels are taken out, that target of $102.5 comes in to play. The mega bearish price target of $32.5 is unactivated and will only become active if the price falls below the bottom of the column of 20 0's (ie filling a box below the $132.5 level). That sort of level sits more comfortably with the Prechter doomsday view of Dow Jones 1,000-3,000. As i've said before, these are just targets that may be achieved, You never know!!

To the upside, we have an unactivated upside target of $182.5. For this to be activated, we need to see the $155 box get filled, which would give a higher column of X's than the previous column of X's.

This was the previous observation on 13th Sept. Note that the shares got beaten down at the previous level of resistance, as denoted by the red oval.

And this from 7th Sept, when the idea of a possible forming triangle was flagged up.

Dow Jones: on the up!

I would not normally use 100x3 charts, as the 100 point box size strips out a lot of noise. They are good for big picture but clearly loads can happen in between.

This is the current picture on the Dow. All looks very positive. We need to see a break above that 11,200 line to give those upside targets a bit more credibility. Bears can take heart that that previous high has not been taken out.

What a difference 2 months makes. Back in July, this same 100x3 chart showed that on balance the risks were to the downside. The 50x3 and 25x3 charts are better for providing shorter term indications.

US Existing Home sales

Antofag vs FTSE 100

A stunning performance from Antofag since the lows of 2008 (see how the FTSE bottomed 3 months later). On a price relative basis, its rarely looked more expensive vs FTSE (or FTSE cheap, heaven forbid!)

AAII Bullish Sentiment Index - looking toppy!

Sourced from Bloomers, this is the American Association of Individual Investors Bullish Sentiment Index, overlaying the SPX (apologies for the quality) from 2005. It measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish or neutral on the stock market for the next six months. Not sure how many members are polled each week.

And here is the survey on its own.

SPX: possible inverse head and shoulders?

One potential scenario. Neckline at 1,130, recent low (head) at 1,010, upside to c 1,250, giving something closer to a double top? Momentum indicators may suggest overbought but some better than expected economic data this week and comforting words by the Fed might move it higher.

FTSE 100; 50 day mva crosses 200 day mva but....

This is a 3 year (anaemic looking!) daily chart of the FTSE 100, log scale. See in this latest move up the weighted 50 day MVA has crossed up back over the 200 day weighted mva, which itself is pointing upwards. Ordinarily a bullish sign.

But see also how a similar pattern played out in May-July 2008, the only difference being the 200 day WMVA was not pointing upwards in the quite the same way.

If the bear market is to re-asset itself, we need to see a hard down on the FTSE 100 soon.