FTSE 250 Index - new intraday high

Not the clearest of charts it must be said (100x3 h/l). The FTSE mid 250 index posted a new all time  high today, taking out the intra day 12,282.2 on 22nd May 2007 - hooray! Currently 12,290 as I write.

The 100x3 chart shows that the Index has on two previous occasions reached this heady level (ie filled the 12,200 box - in May 2007 and more recently July 2011.  Anyone who 'bought the index' in July last year may be looking for an exit, so clearly an area of resistance bulls will need to overcome.

No arguing though its an impressive recovery from the 2009 lows.

Apple

 

Those earlier targets off the top were met, but the shares found support at the 510 level. There is a target to the downside of 380 that has been activated (as resolved by that traingle which eventually broke to the downside -the red coloured 'o's) but it would be more persuasive if Apple were to take out this 510 box, the level where it previously found support

 

 

 

 

 

FTSE 100 - topped out??

 

 

Seeing a lot of resistance on FTSE 100 at the 5,920 level, on both the daily and weekly charts. On the daily, it has struggles to push above that downward resistance line that formed from the 2011 top. And see how the support line from the June 2012 rally has become resistance, which the market was unable to push through this morning. 

 

 

The weekly below also showing strong resistance at current levels. The bulls need to push through this decisively to resume the bullish run but having failed to do so on all previous attempts, i'm wondering if we have seen the top for now.

VIX - gaps

See the gap between 13.90 and 13.75.



The gaps on the VIX consistently get filled. Likely this one will before the higher gap between 17.54 and 16.47



RUT - more upside to come

This 5x3 closing PF of the RUT 2000 suggests a bit more upside. The longer term (blue) bullish support line has not been broken. The target of 875 given from the recent low would challenge the May 11 high. We also have a more recent double top buy signal with a target of 845. This 845 figure is also corroborated on the same 5x3 chart but one that uses the 'high/low' technique.

VIX - getting close to completing H&S target

There is a very nice symmetary on this hourly chart of the VIX. 



For me, the VIX will need to get back down to between 14 and 15 then form a base, which could co-incide with SPX testing its previous high of 1,422.

One thing that can be said about the VIX (just by observing the chart above) is that gaps do get filled and there us a nice gap (circled) between 16.5 and 18. The only question is whether it gets filled prior to going down to the 14-15 range or after.  I'd suggest the latter, such seems to be the renewed mood of 'optimism' running through the market!

And here's the VIX with SPX overlay. I can't count waves to save my life but a traditional double top at 1,422 certainly looks plausible!

FTSE 100 hourly chart

On the hourly chart, possible failed backtest of previous support line.





FTSE 100 update

On the hourly chart the FTSE 100 has now slipped out of the upward channel. 

And on the daily there is a now a backtest of the upward sloping line, where the index previously found resistance at the 61.8% fib.



FTSE 100 4 hour chart

Flirting with the 61.8% fib - short term double top perhaps?

We could now test the upward sloping support line at 5,650  - 5,655

Bigger picture

FTSE 100 update

IF the FTSE has started its wave 3 down, a plausible target is 4,762, which is 1.618x wave 1 down from the top. I say IF because this wave 2 up could yet extend slightly further, up to the 78% retrace level. A decisive move below the 200 day moving average would help the bearish case (but at this moment it cannot be called as the 4 hour chart is hovering around its support line at c5,600 - a sharp move below that would also help the bear's case ).

Expanding the daily chart out shows that the 4,762 target would support the larger head and shoulders case, with the right shoulder completing around that level, nicely on the neckline - we'll see!

FTSE 100: 4 hour chart

Looking a bit stretched

VIX - a bit more to go?

If a completing H&S, should end closer to 15.

FTSE 100 update

A grind up towards the 61.8% retrace at 5,700 looks a goer

FTSE 100

Encountering a bit of resistance turbulance around the 50 day MVA. Yes it looks like a 'death cross' on the 50/200 day mva's but it would be more compelling if the 200 day mva was itself pointing lower (rather than flatlining).

BHP Billiton H&S Update

BHP Billiton - H&S

FTSE 100 update

Nice symmetary but could a H&S be too obvious, too perfect? FTSE made 5,789 today.

This from 6th October: 'As I calculated in a previous post using the 50x3 PF, a 78.6% retrace from the top (6050) to bottom (4800) comes out at 5,782, which is reasonably close). This assumes of course that we get a 'perfect' head and shoulder pattern'.

I must admit I didn't give this much of a chance because back in October the PF's of the FTSE were pointing to lower lows.

BHP Billiton - completing right shoulder?

If the FTSE is going to turn lower it will be led by the high beta mining and bank stocks, which have had an amazing run through Dec.

BHP Billiton share price has filled the gap left at 2160p and 2200p. If this a head and shoulders, it should not go much higher than 2250p (note the lower low at the bottom of the 'head'). RSI currently 71 and Slo Sto 91.

The Weekly chart provides a bit more clairty as to the pattern. Shares currently 2207p, so we will soon find out whether this would be head and shoulders pattern materialises.