EV's Point and Figures: June 2011

Thursday, June 30, 2011

TNA

Active target of 94 on TNA. Can it take out the downward sloping bearish resistance line that sits right above?

The recent price action and post Greece vote has taken the FTSE back in to the 'range' that is has occupied for most of 2011. After breaking that strong support I had envisaged a more prolonged period below the range but all that aside, we can see the index found support twice at 5,650 and that the first target given off the bottom (the 3 column of X's) was activated and has been reached. This pattern is currently pointing higher with an active target of 6,025.....

...which would get the index back toward the top upward sloping line on this candle chart.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

WTI Light Crude

Still above the blue long term bullish support line but looks set to challenge it imminently.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Greek debt and exposure to..

'merde' and 'schisse' spring to mind.....

FTSE 100 - potential upside to 5,875

The 5,425 target on the FTSE was not hit but remains active. It can be seen that in recent days we have had a 3 box reversal, followed by another 3 box reversal and the index has found a bit of support at 5,650. If we get an intra day high of 5,750, that short term target of 5,875 will be activated by a 'double top buy signal'.

Given that 5,875 was previously a level where the market found support on several occasions (note the blue horizontal line) it would be perfectly reasonable to suggest that this could now become a level of resistance.

I also drew that slightly upward sloping line which shows much more clearly on the candle chart. Conversely, another 3 box reversal and a move below the current support level of 5,650 would be very bearish imo.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

FTSE 100 update

5,425 is the active downside target.

iShare FTSE 250 (for FTSE 250 Index)

I've found some London listed stocks and indices on 'Free Stockcharts' - how exciting!

This IShare tracks the performance of the FTSE 250 Index, a mid cap index of the 250 largest companies by market cap outside the FTSE 100. The Ishare prices about 10% of the index level, so at present the index is 11,500. Anyway, its been on a tear since 2009, but appears to be rolling over.

The IShare has been in a 'range' since may of 1,165 and 1,200. See how the bulls tried on 3 occasions to push the index above 1,200 (12,000) but were unable to do so.

The IShare has now fallen out of the range and the first target from the top to the downside of 1,095 is now active. Bullish support has been broken and we now have bearish resistance. The index may get some support at around 1,120 to 1,125, where it got support earlier in the year prior to the Fukushima dip and and bounce.

TNA update: seatbacks?

It seems slightly implausible that we will see a vertical drop all the way back down. However, we are at an interesting juncture!

On this 1x3 H/L chart, the first downside target from the high (57) is active. There is a new target of 28(!) which is currently inactive but would be activated if TNA goes below 68 intraday ((ie the current column of 0's goes beneath the previous column. It is slightly ominous that on this chart, the index has moved below the 69 level where it found support previously, but as its hovering 'around' that level, the bears should be looking for a decisive move lower. I'd certainly be looking for a move closer to that 57 active target.

It can be seen that we did have a reversal to the upside recently: that column of 5 X's has given an unactivated target of 83, which needs another reversal to the upside and a move through 74 to be activated.

Using the 'closing method' (ie ignore the intraday high/lows and focus on closing level only) the chart remains short term bearish. TNA is getting close to the 64 target from the topand here the 69 level needs to hold, or else the currently unactivated target of 31 will be activated.

Does the RUT facilitate such a potentially nasty move to the downside?

Well, this 5x3 H/L chart says its possible. The index is currently at a level where we have seen previous support and note too it is sitting right on the blue bullish support line. If the current column of 0's falls beneath 770, that new target of 635 would be in play. That may seem implausible but just look at how the index moved up by 46% from its 590 bottom in August last year to the peak.

I just wonder if we might get a bit of range trading between 775 and 805 first, as we did for a few weeks back in Jan/Feb (see 1&2 to the left).

And finally the 5x3 PF using the closing method shows the index getting close to the current active of 760. It can be seen on this chart that so far we have not had a 3 box (15 point) reversal to the current column of 0's, which has so far filled 13 boxes (or 65 points) without interruption.

If we got a reversal TODAY, that column of 0's would give an unactivated target of 660, which would be active if the index reversed down and moved below 775. Interestingly, that would take the RUT right on to its long term blue bullish support line, based on this closing method.

I guess one must respect the fact that on this chart at least, while it is clearly short term bearish, that long term bullish support line and trend still prevails.